Iran has reportedly assessed potential strikes on U.S. and British military assets in Europe if Washington escalates the war, with Bulgaria and Cyprus emerging as possible targets. But the evidence points to contingency planning, not a decision to attack.
Iran has considered expanding its confrontation with the United States beyond the Middle East and striking military targets in Europe if Washington significantly escalates the war, according to a new Financial Times report citing people close to the regime in Tehran.
The August 19 report says Iranian forces have assessed potential strikes against U.S. assets in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria, while Cyprus has also been discussed as a possible target for retaliation.
“Should the US go too far, Iran will defend itself at any price, go beyond the region and hit Europe too,” one unnamed regime insider told the Financial Times.
The report represents one of the clearest indications yet that Tehran is examining how it could widen the geographic scope of the conflict. However, there is an important distinction: the Financial Times did not report that Iran has decided to attack Europe.
Its central claims come from two unnamed people close to the Iranian regime and describe contingency planning in the event of further U.S. escalation.
Why Bulgaria Is in Iran’s Sights
Bulgaria’s Bezmer Air Base has become increasingly important to U.S. operations.
In July, Bulgaria’s parliament approved the temporary deployment of up to eight U.S. Air Force KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft and as many as 250 American military personnel at Bezmer to support U.S. operations in the Middle East.
Iran responded almost immediately.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei warned Bulgaria against allowing its territory to support American military operations against Iran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later personally raised the issue with his Bulgarian counterpart, describing the decision as “condemnable, unacceptable and contrary to the traditionally friendly relations between the two countries.”
Despite Tehran’s warnings, the first two American tanker aircraft arrived at Bezmer on July 31.
Now, according to the Financial Times, Iranian forces have assessed striking U.S. assets in southeastern European countries such as Bulgaria if Washington launches a renewed offensive against Iran.
That does not mean an attack on Bulgaria has been ordered. But the progression is significant: Bulgaria approved U.S. military deployments, Iran repeatedly protested, and Iranian forces have now reportedly examined the country as part of their potential retaliation options.
Cyprus Could Also Become a Target
Cyprus presents an even more complicated situation.
The Republic of Cyprus is a member of the European Union but not NATO. However, Britain retains sovereign territory on the island containing the Akrotiri and Dhekelia military bases.
RAF Akrotiri is one of Britain’s most important military installations in the eastern Mediterranean and has supported operations throughout the Middle East.
The base has already experienced the consequences of the regional conflict.
In early March, a drone struck RAF Akrotiri, causing minor damage but no reported casualties. Cypriot and British assessments indicated that the weapon was an Iranian-made Shahed-type drone likely launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon rather than directly from Iranian territory.
Iran denied targeting Cyprus.
Iran’s ambassador to Cyprus, Alireza Salarian, subsequently insisted that neither Cyprus nor the British bases were Iranian targets.
Yet according to the new Financial Times report, one of the Iranian insiders now says Cyprus has been considered among potential targets for retaliation if the United States launches another major offensive.
Cypriot officials sought to downplay the report Wednesday.
“We are in contact with Iran and Cyprus is not a target,” an unnamed Cypriot government source told Cyprus Mail.
Iran Has Already Warned European Governments
The latest report does not appear in isolation.
Iranian officials and military organizations have repeatedly warned European governments against allowing their territory to be used for attacks against Iran.
In March, Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi warned that countries joining U.S. and Israeli military action would become legitimate targets for Iranian retaliation.
Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, later said that “any facility, any base which is used to attack Iran would be a legitimate target for our military force.”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued similar warnings.
According to the Financial Times, the IRGC warned last month that “any base that is used to launch an attack on Iranian territory will be considered a legitimate target.”
The common thread running through these threats is important: they have generally been conditional.
Iran has not publicly announced an intention to launch an unprovoked attack against Europe. Instead, Tehran has warned that European military facilities could become targets if they directly support attacks against Iran.
Can Iranian Missiles Actually Reach Europe?
The answer depends heavily on which part of Europe.
Cyprus lies roughly 1,250 to 1,300 kilometers from western Iran, placing it within the range of several Iranian medium-range ballistic missile systems.
Bulgaria is farther away. Bezmer Air Base is approximately 1,750 kilometers from northwestern Iran and roughly 2,000 kilometers from western Iran, putting it near the outer range of some of Iran’s operational missile systems.
Western Europe presents a much more difficult challenge.
Germany and Britain are thousands of kilometers farther away, beyond the reliable range normally associated with Iran’s operational ballistic missile arsenal.
Iran nevertheless demonstrated this year that it is willing to attempt much longer-range attacks.
In March, Iran reportedly launched two ballistic missiles toward the joint U.S.-British military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, roughly 3,800 to 4,000 kilometers from Iranian territory.
Neither missile reached its target successfully.
The attempt was nevertheless significant because it demonstrated Tehran’s willingness to push its missile capabilities far beyond the approximately 2,000-kilometer range Iran had historically described as a self-imposed limit.
Sidharth Kaushal of the Royal United Services Institute told the Financial Times that Iran’s missile threat to Europe was “real, but limited.”
Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies similarly pointed to the Diego Garcia attack as evidence that Iran possesses weapons capable of traveling beyond 2,000 kilometers, while cautioning that questions remain about their numbers, accuracy and effectiveness.
Iran Has Another Way to Strike Europe
Ballistic missiles may not be Tehran’s most practical option.
Iran has decades of experience conducting operations in Europe through intelligence operatives, allied militant groups and criminal networks.
Some of those cases have been established in European courts.
A German court concluded that Iranian state officials ordered the 1992 assassination of four Iranian Kurdish opposition figures at Berlin’s Mykonos restaurant.
Former Iranian prime minister Shapour Bakhtiar was assassinated near Paris in 1991, with individuals later convicted in France.
More recently, an Iranian diplomat, Assadollah Assadi, was sentenced to 20 years in prison by a Belgian court for his role in a plot to bomb a major Iranian opposition rally near Paris in 2018.
Western governments have also accused Iran in recent years of increasingly using criminal networks to target dissidents, Israeli interests and Jewish institutions abroad.
That history matters because covert or proxy operations could allow Iran to retaliate inside Europe without attempting the much more difficult and politically explosive step of firing ballistic missiles directly at NATO territory.
Kaushal told the Financial Times that working through proxies could be “more fruitful” for Tehran.
The NATO Problem
An Iranian attack on Bulgaria would carry enormous risks.
Bulgaria is a NATO member. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states that an armed attack against one member can be treated as an attack against all.
That does not mean NATO would automatically launch a particular military response. Each member determines what assistance it considers necessary.
But deliberately attacking a NATO member would expose Iran to the possibility of a confrontation involving the entire alliance.
Cyprus is different.
The Republic of Cyprus is not a NATO member. However, RAF Akrotiri sits within a British Sovereign Base Area and is therefore British territory. An attack against the base could consequently raise questions involving Britain’s NATO commitments.
This escalation risk is one of the strongest reasons analysts remain skeptical that Tehran would choose direct missile attacks against European territory except under extreme circumstances.
So, Is Iran Planning to Attack Europe?
Based on the evidence currently available, Iran appears to be planning for the possibility, not preparing to execute an imminent attack.
That distinction matters.
The Financial Times report says Iranian forces have “assessed” European targets and examined ways to expand the conflict if the United States launches another major offensive. It does not report missile deployments, launcher movements or other indications that an attack on Europe is imminent.
Iran’s threats have also overwhelmingly been conditional: if European territory is used to attack Iran, Tehran says the facilities involved could become legitimate targets.
But dismissing those warnings entirely would also be a mistake.
Iran has already demonstrated a willingness to attack far beyond its borders, attempted an unprecedented long-range strike against Diego Garcia, repeatedly warned countries hosting U.S. forces and maintained networks capable of carrying out covert operations inside Europe.
For now, Europe appears to be part of Tehran’s contingency planning rather than its battlefield.
Whether it stays that way may increasingly depend on what happens next between Iran and the United States.
