Four Exit Polls, Four Results: None Gives Netanyahu's Bloc a Majority

Channel 14 puts Netanyahu's bloc at 60 seats, Kan 11 at 50, Channel 16 at 53 and i24NEWS at 55. The official count will decide the final numbers.

Israel's four main exit polls diverged sharply on Tuesday night, October 27, but agreed on one point: none gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's current bloc a majority in the Knesset.

The projections for the bloc range from 50 to 60 seats. A majority in the 120 seat Knesset is 61.

Four channels, four projections

Channel 14 projects 60 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, one short of a majority. Kan 11 puts the bloc at 50, eleven short.

Channel 16 gives the current coalition 53 seats, eight short of 61. i24NEWS puts the bloc at 55, six short.

The gap between the highest and lowest projection is ten seats.

What a "mandate" means

In Israeli election coverage, a "mandate" is one seat in the Knesset, Israel's parliament. A projection of 60 mandates means 60 lawmakers, not 60 percent of the vote.

There are 120 seats. Sixty is exactly half, and 61 is a majority.

Israelis vote for party lists, and seats are allocated broadly in proportion to each party's share of the vote. Parties must pass the electoral threshold to enter the Knesset.

The largest party does not automatically form the government

After the results are final, the president consults the parties in the Knesset and gives one member the task of forming a government.

A party can win the most seats and still fall short of the partners it needs. What counts is whether a candidate can put together a coalition, or other parliamentary support, that reaches 61.

Exit polls are not the official count

Exit polls are based on surveys of voters as they leave polling stations. The official count is based on the ballots themselves, and the final numbers can differ from every projection.

The Central Elections Committee publishes the official results as the count proceeds through the night.

One seat could decide the next government

On Channel 14's projection, a single seat would take Netanyahu's bloc to 61. On the other three projections, the bloc would need a larger shift in the count or support from parties outside it.

The official count will settle the seat totals, and coalition talks will decide who forms the next government.