A Statistical Approach to Hamas Killing Israeli Hostages
Joseph Mendlovic MD MHA (1,2) | Yuval Dadon MD MBA MPH (1) | Francis B. Mimouni MD (3,4)
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1) Deputy Director Office, Ministry of Health, Jerusalem, lsrael
2) Department of Pediatrics, Shaare Zedek Medical Center, affiliated with the Hadassah-Hebrew University School of Medicine, Jerusalem, lsrael
3) Leumit Health Services and Research lnstitute, Tel Aviv, lsrael
4) Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, lsrael
IMAJ • VOL 26 • MARCH 2024 | IRON SWORDS
ABSTRACT
Background: According to Hamas sources, many lsraeli hos tages in Gaza were killed by indiscriminate lsraeli airstrikes, together with a large number of Palestinian citizens.
Objectives: To verify whether the estimated death rate of lsraeli hostages was similar to the estimated death rate of Gaza citizens from these acts of war.
Methods: We used two estimates of hostage death rates, one obtained from lsraeli intelligence sources, and one published by a Hamas spokesperson. We used the Palestin ian casualty rates published by the Palestinian Ministry of Health. We compared death rates using Fisher’s exact test.
Results: By 30 December 2023, the rate of lsraeli hostage death was 23/238 (9.7%) according to lsraeli intelligence sources, and 60/238 (25.2%) according to Hamas. Both fig ures are strikingly and significantly higher than the death rate among Palestinians, estimated to be 19,667 /2.2 million (0.89%) by 19 December 2023 (P < 0.0001).
Conclusion
lsraeli airstrikes as the cause of death of lsÂraeli hostages are implausible unless they were specificalÂly exposed to these strikes more than Palestinian citizens. IMAJ 2024; 26: 141-142
KEY WORDS: mortality rate, warfare, hostages, cause of death
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